FinGaz
Rangarirai Mberi News Editor
Zimbabwe
decides in landmark poll
IT IS 48 hours before Zimba-bweans vote in an
election that, regardless of
the outcome, is set to change the way their
country is governed.
There is mixture of suspense and hope among voters
and political players,
two days before an election in which 5.9 million
voters hope to deliver a
verdict that stops the world’s fastest economic
decline.
Over the next few days, President Robert Mugabe, after 28 years in
power,
will find out whether his campaign strategy premised around the
defence of
the country’s sovereignty, economic empowerment and his party’s
liberation
war credentials was enough to convince restive voters to hand him
another
five-year term despite a deepening economic crisis.
He will also
find out whether it was a wise decision after all to go back on
an earlier
promise to step down in 2008.
He had promised to retire this year, but later
said he feared his party
would fall apart in his absence. But, ironically,
it is that very decision
to stay on ostensibly to keep ZANU PF together that
has now torn his party
apart and left it at the mercy of an equally
fragmented opposition.
And his two main challengers, Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) leader
Morgan Tsvangirai and former finance minister Simba
Makoni, will also find
out whether their message of change and economic
reform has resonated
sufficiently with the electorate to garner such an
avalanche of votes as to
make any possible rigging difficult.
While
sticking to his old revolutionary script, President Mugabe has
sweetened his
campaign by distributing an assortment of farm equipment,
buses, motorcycles
and computers to retain office.
Today, he doles out vehicles to
doctors.
But analysts say these donations may not be enough to blunt the
impact the
deepening economic crisis, now in its ninth year, has had on his
support.
The veteran nationalist says the continued socio-economic challenges
were a
result of sanctions imposed on the country by the European Union and
the
United States as punishment for repossessing land from the white
minority
and redistributing it to landless blacks.
ZANU-PF’s once
formidable rural support will be tested on Saturday amid
indications that it
might have crumbled under the weight of the economic
crisis and poor
harvests. Despite being weakened by the October 2005 split,
the opposition
has also capitalised on the unprecedented access it has had
to these areas
to spread its message of change.
Journalists travelling with ZANU-PF
campaigners have reported rare open
defiance of the ruling party by
previously cowed villagers.
One meeting attended by a Financial Gazette
reporter in Mashonaland West had
to be cancelled due to a poor turnout. But
the MDC has held well-attended
weekly meetings in the same area.
Also
noticeable over recent weeks has been the hardening tone of President
Mugabe’s campaign speeches. Facing a strongly resurgent Tsvangirai, and
embittered by Makoni and Dumiso Dabengwa’s defection from ZANU-PF, President
Mugabe has over the past week sounded increasingly irritable in his rally
addresses, stepping up personal attacks on his opponents.
In Bulawayo at
the weekend, he made his most vehement vow yet that he would
not relinquish
power.
He said: “You can vote for them (MDC), but that would be a wasted
vote. I am
telling you. You would just be cheating yourself. There is no way
we can
allow them to rule this country. Never, ever. We have a job to do, to
protect our heritage. The MDC will not rule this country. It will never,
ever happen. We will never allow it.”
A major talking point in the run-up
to this weekend’s polls is the stance of
three service chiefs, Zimbabwe
Prison Services head Paradzayi Zimondi,
Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander
Constantine Chiwenga, and Police
Commissioner General Augustine Chihuri, who
have all vowed that they will
not salute either Tsvangirai or
Makoni.
Tsvangirai this week said he believed these remarks did not
represent the
views of the country’s security forces.
“The enemies of
justice will seek to subvert the will of the people,” he
said. “But I have
been assured that the majority of our armed forces, the
police and the
Central Intelligence Organisation, are behind the people, and
they are
committed to defend the will of the people.”
Nkosana Moyo, national
coordinator of the Makoni campaign, said yesterday
President Mugabe had
missed a chance to show leadership by deploring the
service chiefs’
threats.
“Mugabe, if he had any self respect and respect for voters, and as
Head of
State, should have come out in public and unequivocally condemned
these
statements (by service chiefs),” Moyo said.
There is much less
violence compared to previous election campaigns, but
fears of vote rigging
have persisted and intensified as the election
approaches, with the
opposition alleging a plot by the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission and other
government agencies to manipulate the polls.
“There has not been too much
overt violence against the opposition. But the
manipulation of the electoral
process has been moved to a higher level of
sophistication. The manipulation
and intimidation has become more subtle,”
Moyo said.
An opinion poll
conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute places
Tsvangirai ahead of
President Mugabe and even further in front of Makoni.
But another poll due to
be released today, by University of Zimbabwe
lecturer Joseph Kurebwa, is
likely to show a different trend.
This week, buoyed by the large crowds
turning up for his rallies, Tsvangirai
said he was ready to take over as
President.
“In April, Zimbabwe will inaugurate a new President. He will be a
people’s
President, one who will not take away your rights, but bring peace,
love and
prosperity to all Zimbabweans,” Tsvangirai said.
For Simba
Makoni, the next few days will be an anxious time. The
announcement of his
candidacy on February 5 generated excitement but
suspicions about his
motives dogged his campaign.
The start of his campaign was bogged down by
muffled criticism of President
Mugabe, but Makoni has since sharpened his
attacks against his former boss
in recent weeks. However, many believe his
campaign started too late.
On Monday the former ZANU-PF politburo member
accused Tsvangirai and
President Mugabe of being economical with the truth
in a spirited bid to
derail his presidential bid.
Makoni was quoted
saying the MDC leader and President Mugabe were
deliberately using a
two-pronged propaganda strategy to scuttle his
campaign.
“There are two
storylines,” Makoni said. “One is that I’m a Mugabe stooge, a
plant. This is
a falsehood being pushed by the Tsvangirai MDC. The second,
which Mugabe
uses, is that I’m a stooge of the West, of Britain and America.
“For the
record, I was part of the liberation struggle as the chief
representative of
ZANU in Europe. I was in the politburo until 2005, and I
was in charge of a
number of highly sensitive dossiers.
“So that whole time the president kept
me in a high position in the
government while I’m an agent of the West? That
doesn’t make sense. He is
smearing me because we parted ways.”
Visibly
tired as a gruelling campaign drew to an end this week, Makoni
nevertheless
joked after a rally in Chinhoyi on Monday: “I feel I can go on
for another
two months.”
Makoni has campaigned on a middle of the road platform, finding
support
among those disillusioned with both the MDC and ZANU-PF. But his
campaign
has been plagued by persistent questions about the “big wig
backers” who
were supposed to publicly endorse him.
“It is sadly an
indication of what is wrong with African politics. The “Big
Man” syndrome.
The people, the voters, are more important than any big name.
He has support
across the board,” said Moyo.
According to Moyo, Makoni represents the best
way forward for Zimbabwe.
“Makoni understands that the government cannot do
things for the people. The
government can only create an environment that
allows people to do things
for themselves. He has been very clear on that,”
said Moyo.
Analysts say whatever the outcome of this weekend’s vote, Zimbabwe
will
never be the same again.
There are bound to be major changes in the
political landscape after
Saturday. A win for President Mugabe would almost
definitely be contested,
and former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo says
ZANU PF would find the
country ungovernable.
Should the opposition win,
as predicted by independent polls, the new
government would most likely
accommodate ZANU PF in a national unity
government. The biggest concern for
voters is how their economic fortunes
will turn after they vote.
FinGaz
Staff Reporter
AT
last, some humour in a serious campaign. John Nkomo, the ZANU-PF
chairman,
is said to have chickened out of a television debate with Simba
Makoni
yesterday, according to senior staff at the ZBC.
The state broadcaster
had invited Nkomo to a 10:30am recording as part of
its election coverage.
But it appears they neglected to tell him he was to
face a debating
opponent.
Upon entering a studio, Nkomo was astounded to see Makoni. He
complained
that he had not been informed about Makoni’s participation and
immediately
walked out.
ZBC cancelled the debate, but later interviewed
Makoni.
The independent presidential candidate had waited for Nkomo to arrive
for
more than two hours, and was forced to cancel a rally at Stodart Hall in
Mbare due to the delay.
Nkomo was not immediately available for comment,
but a spokesman for Makoni
confirmed the incident yesterday.
Last week,
ZBC aired debates pitting the Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC)’s
Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga and Tapiwa Mashakada against Chris
Mutsvangwa, ZANU-PF’s “research analyst” and its Norton parliamentary
candidate.
The debates have sometimes resulted in comical exchanges
between ZBC’s
interviewers, especially Happison Muchechetere, and
guests.
During a debate last week, MDC secretary general Tendai Biti
responded to
Muchechetere’s barbs by asking him: “Can’t you smell the
change? We are
going to kick butt come March 29.”
Meanwhile, the Makoni
campaign has protested that the ZBC has refused to
flight television adverts
it had fully paid for.
FinGaz
Staff Reporter
IN a
landmark ruling, the Supreme Court has overturned a decision by the
Media
and Information Commission (MIC) banning freelancer Brian Hungwe from
working as a journalist.
Hungwe was last month banned from working as
a journalist for one year by
the MIC as punishment for allegedly operating
without proper accreditation
as required by the country’s tough media
laws.
Hungwe’s suspension, which was backdated to August 20, 2007, was
supposed to
last up to August 19, 2008.
Supreme Court Chief Justice,
Godfrey Chidyausiku, ruled yesterday at an
urgent application hearing that
Hungwe’s suspension was not in accordance
with the law.
“I am satisfied
in suspending applicant the MIC did not comply with Section
85 (3) of AIPPA.
(Acess to Information and Protection of Privacy Act)
“The requirements of
section 85 (3) of Act are peremptory and failure to
comply with them renders
the actions of MIC a nullity,” reads a judgment
delivered by Justice
Chidyausiku.
Hungwe, an award-winning journalist, took his case to the
Supreme Court
after the High Court refused to hear it early this month on
the grounds that
the matter was not urgent.
Justice Chidyausiku said in
his judgement overturning the ban: “In terms of
Section 75 (2) of the
Supreme Court, a judge of this court has powers to
review proceedings of
intervention tribunals such as this respondent.
“In the exercise of such
powers, the respondents’ suspension of the
applicant be and is hereby set
aside on the grounds as a nullity.”
FinGaz
Clemence Manyukwe Staff
Reporter
THE sixth Parliament of Zimbabwe will be dissolved tomorrow,
closing a
chapter on a session in which Members of Parliament (MPs) will be
remembered
for exposing the executive’s role in fuelling corruption and
sweeping dirt
under the carpet.
Ahead of Saturday’s election, all
presidential candidates — President Robert
Mugabe, Movement for Democratic
Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai and
independent candidates Simba Makoni and
Langton Towungana — have spoken
against graft.
But it is President Mugabe
whose record has been most damaged by the work of
the last Parliament, which
proved his administration had only paid lip
service to fighting the
scourge.
Addressing his launch rally at Zimbabwe Grounds early this month,
Makoni hit
out at President Mugabe for openly criticising corrupt officials
within his
government, only to fold his hands when action was
needed.
Cases of corruption uncovered by MPs beginning in 2005, when the
sixth
Parliament was constituted, were ignored, with government turning a
blind
eye to Parliamentary reports that unearthed bribery, smuggling,
embezzlement, cronyism, and patronage across government
institutions.
During its investigation of Ziscosteel, the state owned steel
maker, the
Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Foreign Affairs, Trade and
Industry,
urged government to make public a report implicating top officials
in
illicit dealings at the parastatal.
The session ends tomorrow with
nothing having been accomplished.
A motion by the same committee also called
for the impeachment of Industry
and International Trade Minister Obert Mpofu
for allegedly lying under oath
and flouting national laws in awarding a
management contract to an Indian
firm, Global Steel, but his conviction fell
away after ministers lobbied
against its adoption.
In February last year,
deputy Police Commissioner General Godwin Matanga
told legislators that
after they launched Operation Chikorokoza
Chapera/Isitsheketsha Sesiphelile,
designed to end illegal gold panning, law
enforcement agents discovered that
top politicians had been involved in
illegal gold dealings. No arrests were
made.
During a hearing before the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Mines,
Environment and Tourism, small scale miners accused ministry permanent
secretary Margaret Sangarwe of promoting panning on her farm in Mashonaland
West.
Sangarwe, who was present during the hearing, did not dispute the
allegations. But again, no action was taken.
The government also blocked
a budget and finance hearing where central bank
governor Gideon Gono had
intended to release a list of names of officials
accused of hoarding cash
for foreign currency trading on the black market.
Late last year, a report by
the Transport and Communications Committee,
chaired by outgoing Makonde
legislator Leo Mugabe, questioned the tender
process in the Victoria Falls
airport construction project.
“The committee observed that the tender process
on the Victoria Falls
Airport was flawed. It was apparent to the committee
that the authority
(Civil Aviation) was acting from instructions elsewhere,”
the report said.
Still, the report was ignored.
Last year, the Public
Accounts Committee reported that over the years, the
social welfare fund had
been looted.
The committee’s plea for further investigation went
unheeded.
In the few cases where government has pursued corruption cases, it
has been
proved that most of the cases of state abuse were politically
motivated.
One such case was one in which Finance Minister Samuel Mumbengegwi
withdrew
a tax retention scheme for the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA),
saying
his aim was to end the abuse of state funds.
But when members of
the Public Accounts Committee instituted investigations,
they found no
evidence of Mumbengegwi’s claims, and instead discovered a
plot by the
minister to get rid of top ZIMRA management.
“Your committee was told that
the reason given by the Ministry of Finance to
the board chairman for
revoking the retention system was the alleged abuse
of funds by ZIMRA…The
board chairman said the board, through its internal
audit committee, did its
own investigations and nothing of the sort was
unearthed.
“Also, the
Comptroller and Auditor General’s report did not mention anything
of the
sort,” the Public Accounts Committee report said.
With a new Parliament to be
elected at the weekend, hopes are for a new
chapter in which corruption is
not only uncovered, but followed up and
culprits brought to book.
FinGaz
Shame Makoshori Staff
Reporter
A FRESH race row has erupted at the Mashonaland Turf Club (MTC),
with black
members alleging nepotism, discrimination and unfair treatment by
the
dominant white membership of Zimbabwe’s largest betting
concern.
The MTC has historically been dogged by allegations of racism,
and now
documents seen by The Financial Gazette have re-ignited the
controversy.
The documents allege that racial discrimination remains rife at
the
Borrowdale Park Racecourse where black members say they continue to
experience prejudice.
“Black Zimbabwean apprentices at the club are
treated with disdain and are
not given the same race riding opportunities
given to whites and are treated
unfairly in their dealings with their white
academy managers,” a letter
circulated this week says.
“The MTC staff is
poorly paid. Most of the money generated by the same staff
is paid towards
horses’ maintenance and prize money, and these horses are
owned by the
almost 100 percent white membership.
“It appears the board believes the life
of a horse is more important than
the life of a black person.”
But MTC
chairman Paul Rugg yesterday described the allegations as “hard to
believe”.
He insisted the club had tried to promote racial equity in all
its
programmes.
“Like any club, if you want to join, you can come and
join,” Rugg said.
“But it is an expensive hobby, you see. It is very
expensive to maintain and
keep horses. We have an academy at the race course
and we are training 14
apprentices, and a number of them are black,” Rugg
added.
Only one black manager has led the jockey academy over the past two
years.
Only a handful of the 100 members of the MTC, who act like
shareholders, are
black.
Black members complain about the “racist
tendencies of fellow white members”,
and claim they are sidelined when board
decisions are made.
“There has been no deliberate policy adopted by the
members of the board or
management for that matter to try to increase the
black membership of the
club,” this paper’s sources said.
They said the
few black horse trainers in the industry were not accorded the
same
treatment as their white counterparts. The Financial Gazette was also
told
that the MTC had been reluctant to increase the number of black
trainers.
The best accommodation was only available to white horse
trainers, it is
claimed. Managers and their children receive free
accommodation at the
academy.
However, one black manager was “thrown out
of the managers’ residence where
he was staying” and was stranded in
“unsatisfactory conditions” while
looking for alternative
accommodation.
Rugg denied further allegations that the MTC had adopted a
deliberate policy
to limit the number of black-owned businesses and
individuals renting
offices at the Borrowdale Park Racecourse.
FinGaz
Temba Mliswa
I BELIEVE
that one must have the conviction and be led by conscience in
making any
decision. And when one talks about these values, you cannot
discount the
fact that these are ingrained in ZANU-PF’s way of doing things.
Therefore,
failure to vote for ZANU-PF this Saturday would be a betrayal of
these key
values.
It is these virtues and, indeed, a system of governance that
brought about
independence, peace and unity in Zimbabwe after a protracted
liberation war
in which thousands of the country’s gallant sons and
daughters lost their
lives. Without practicing these, Zimbabwe would not
have achieved the peace
and tranquility that it is enjoying today. It is
common cause that one must
achieve peace to take the country forward and
that is what ZANU-PF – under
President Robert Mugabe’s leadership – has
done.
With that people-centred government in place, Zimbabwe has invested
heavily
in numerous projects such as health care facilities, roads, schools
and
other infrastructural developments that have empowered the previously
disadvantaged masses.
It is through these developments and indeed
ZANU-PF’s people-centred
policies, that President Mugabe’s government has
not only built a modernised
economy, but has economically empowered the
people as well.
These projects speak of ZANU-PF’s vision and quest to empower
its previously
marginalised citizens that has resulted in the emergence of
prominent
business people such as Strive Masiyiwa, Anthony Mandiwanza and
Phillip
Chiyangwa to mention just but a few.
With such a record, it is
sheer expediency, therefore, to query ZANU-PF’s
commitment to empowering the
people of Zimbabwe.
Without obfuscating our current problems and, indeed,
policy shortcomings
expected of economic transition of that magnitude, it is
clear that some of
the country’s problems today are self-inflicted vices and
caprices of our
erstwhile empowered-actors and brothers, including local
businessmen working
in cahoots with both factions of the Movement for
Democratic Change.
A case in point is in the banking sector, where some
owners and promoters of
financial institutions turned themselves into
renegades and became overly
ambitious to the extent of dreaming to own
everything under the sun. The
likes of fugitive businessman Mutumwa Mawere,
who when called to account for
his actions skipped the country immediately
comes into mind. Instead of
blaming himself, Mawere is now playing
victim.
Unfortunately, some of the government’s empowerment beneficiaries,
who
choose to conveniently denigrate the hand that fed them are in ZANU-PF,
but
it does not mean that the revolutionary movement is patently flawed or
tolerates indiscipline such as corruption.
It is people, and mere
individuals’ selfish choices, that soil the party’s
good name and the
electorate should guard against throwing the baby out with
the bath water.
In any case, it is ZANU-PF’s fight against corruption which
has netted a
number of actors in the private sector.
On a broader level, one has to look
at such life-changing initiatives as the
land reform programme as ZANU-PF’s
drive to empirically or meaningfully
change the people’s lives. Thousands of
indigenous Zimba-bweans have been
allocated land under the exercise, which
Britain and its allies, with the
help of the opposition, are trying to
reverse.
Personally, the land reform exercise has immensely empowered members
of my
extended family and me.
Only recently, government concluded the
third phase of the farm
mechanisation programme, which has helped mechanise
agriculture.
Farmers who had been resettled by the government under the land
reform
programme had found themselves unable to fully utilise the resource
because
of obsolete farm equipment, some of it vandalised by the former
white
commercial farmers. But thanks to the farm mechanisation programme,
our
farmers can now till the land, harvest their crops and ensure they get
to
the agricultural marketing authorities on time.
But of course, there
are other exogenous factors beyond ZANU-PF’s control
such as the drought,
which is now a common feature in the southern Africa
region.
While no one
in ZANU-PF and, indeed, government, has ever claimed
infallibility in the
implementation of projects such as the land reforms and
the recently enacted
empowerment laws, it is only the ruling party, which
has the wherewithal to
undertake such projects, and whose necessity will
fully reflect with time or
under future generations.
Its shortcomings, however, cannot only be ascribed
to government because
there are a number of factors that come into play or
ought to be considered
on its success.
The staunch opposition to the
programme, meanwhile, is testimony that the
former wholesale owners of the
land were not willing to let go of an asset
from which they were benefiting
immensely.
Land is a permanent asset or holding that not only deals with
people’s
housing and resettlement, but has everything to do with our
livelihoods.
The misuse or unavailability of inputs, for instance, has been a
result of
foreign cash shortages, which in itself is a consequence of
withheld donor
aid or funding attached to the so-called “smart”
sanctions.
In the case of the former, the greediness of a few cannot be
ZANU-PF’s fault
because the party cannot be a giver of resources (to the
people) and be a
monopolistic overseer of their deployment, and application
too when we have
juridical institutions for that function.
This (policing
mechanism) requires a holistic approach and national
steadfastness to fight
such ills as self-centeredness.
While people have also misused the party’s
name, those self-interested
tendencies are not reflective of the greater
party’s ethos or inclination.
Therefore, I see people voting for ZANU-PF
because of the vision it has for
the people of Zimbabwe. The enactment of
the National Indigenisation and
Empowerment Act should see Zimbabweans
getting more actively involved in the
mainstream economy in a much more
meaningful way this time beyond the window
dressing board representation
seen in the past.
With the involvement of indigenous people in running
companies, it becomes
easier to further enhance productivity and fight
inflation, which remains
the country’s number one enemy.
Some of us
remain staunch supporters of the party because it is for and
represents
tangible empowerment, and not the megaphone or rooftop diplomacy
of some of
these fly-by night political formations.
Hence, those with a keen sense of
belonging (to Zimbabwe) will not stop
voting for ZANU-PF.
Our
presidential candidate President Mugabe has carried the mandate of the
people in a diligent and selfless as well as unparalleled manner across
Africa, and the broader global community, and the attacks on his persona
show the enemy’s exasperation over ZANU-PF’s resilience, solidity and
winning formula.
Whether there will be change of guard in Zimbabwe, it
will only be the team
and not the formula. I also want to depose that such a
transformation – if
ever it happens – will only come from and with ZANU-PF
in power.
What will also help ZANU-PF – if not preserve the status quo – is
that
having analysed the so-called opposition, an enlightened Zimbabwean
electorate and population has seen that they not only lack depth, but
power-crazed formations or factions of the ruling party. This, therefore,
means that the real ZANU-PF will not be dislodged from power.
Another
critical point that we need to observe is that while President
Mugabe and a
host of liberators of this country are still alive, they are
itching and
will continue wanting to see through this project called
Zimbabwe’s total
liberation – thus entrenching their and the ruling party’s
credentials in
empowering people.
Thus, when the generals say that they will not salute
anyone outside this
generation of decorated nationalists, one must fully
appreciate their pains
and sacrifice for Zimbabwe to be what it is today
after a bewildering, and
tortuous century under colonial
regimes.
Rightfully, it is in that respect people would want to protect their
gains
today and tomorrow by voting in ZANU-PF.
FinGaz
Ibbo Mandaza
THE
discerning analyst of an electoral process such as that underway in
Zimbabwe
needs to keep the eye on the ball, be wary of the media hype and
the
accompanying barrage of advertisements on the part of the well resourced
ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-Tsvangirai), and always
remember that it is the numbers at the poll that will determine the outcome
on Saturday.
A three-sided contest would have benefited Morgan
Tsvangirai’s second bid
for the presidency. But, sadly, this is not to
be.
With (President) Robert Mugabe a rank outsider with four percent or less
of
the vote, the race is clearly between Tsvangirai and Makoni.
This is
where the numbers game becomes central, especially if one
understands that,
beyond Harare Province, which is its traditional
stronghold, the MDC
(Tsvangirai) remains quite marginal elsewhere, even
though it will have made
inroads in the rural areas, thanks to the virtual
collapse of ZANU-PF in the
latter.
A careful analysis of the rural areas will reveal the extent to which
voters
therein have moved more easily from ZANU-PF to Makoni’s
Mavambo-Kusile-Dawn
than to MDC (Tsvangirai).
This is also because the
MDC had in the previous elections not been allowed
a free rein by ZANU-PF
and, understandably, many rural folk may not have
known of Tsvangirai and
his party until this late hour.
Here is where Makoni appears to have cashed
in on a rural population that is
so enthralled by this energetic man, the
genuine smile that has become
almost the hallmark of his campaign, and the
eloquence — in the mother
tongue — with which he has delivered his message
of hope and renewal.
Those who have seen and heard him know what I am writing
about; and even if
George Charamba and his people at Zimpapers and Zimbabwe
Broadcasting
Holdings have succeeded in sustaining a media blackout on
Makoni’s campaign,
that will obviously not have mattered for most of a rural
sector for whom
The Herald /The Sunday Mail and ZBC are as scarce as
maize-meal, salt and
sugar.
So, I would give Makoni at least 60 percent
of the rural vote, which stands
roughly at a total of four million
voters.
Besides, my survey confirms in general that Makoni is ahead in the
following
provinces: Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South, Bulawayo,
Midlands,
Masvingo and Manicaland; and will also have benefited from the
collapse of
ZANU-PF in Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East and Mashonaland
Central, even
if Tsvangirai will also have made substantial inroads into
these three
provinces.
Of course, the media is a thing of the urban
areas, so disproportionately
exaggerated in terms of its outreach and
influence, especially when the
latter is presumed national and
dominant.
Not surprisingly, the pervasive impression that Morgan Tsvangirai
is ahead
of Makoni is based almost solely on Harare and the media hype — not
to
mention an advertising campaign the likes of which the urban areas have
not
experienced during previous elections — which magnifies a candidate
beyond
the reality that translates into numbers on polling day.
So,
Makoni’s star does appear eclipsed behind that barrage of Tsvangirai’s
advertising campaign, which his Mavambo-Kusile-Dawn could never match given
the very limited resources at the latter’s disposal.
However, the new kid
on the block should take at least 50 percent of the
vote in Harare, 70
percent in Bulawayo, 60 percent in Gweru, 80 percent in
Mutare, 50 percent
in Masvingo, 80 percent in Chinhoyi, 50 percent in
Marondera and 60 percent
in Bindura.
To be modest, Makoni will at least share the urban vote (of
roughly two
million voters) with Tsvangirai; and considering that most of
the business
and professional classes — including those in the civil and
uniformed
services — are likely to view Makoni as a softer landing this time
round,
the Mavambo-Kusile-Dawn man might even have the edge over Tsvangirai
in
Harare province, which has a total of about 900 000 voters.
One could
easily get carried away with numbers, a senseless exercise,
perhaps, when
election day is hardly two days away.
All the same, this might help to temper
both rampant speculation on the part
of some and premature euphoria in other
quarters. But the main purpose of
this contribution is to highlight what I
believe to be the qualities of the
man who should succeed to the office of
the President on March 29, as well
as the historical and political
circumstances, which favour Makoni’s chances
in this regard.
In another
contribution last week, I made reference to Makoni’s rare
intellect, a gift,
which has no doubt been the foundation of his
professional accomplishments
as both a chemist and industrialist; but also
contributed to the development
of those leadership qualities that have seen
him become student leader in
the early 1970’s, a chief representative (in
Western Europe) of the National
Liberation Movement in the late 1970’s and,
at the age of 29, the youngest
minister in Zimbabwe’s post-independence
Cabinet in 1980.
The four years
spent in the formative and heady days of the new State will
have provided
him with enormous experience and exposure in the affairs of
government and
development policy, while also preparing him for the
subsequent decade
(1984-94) spent in international diplomacy, as the
Executive Secretary of
SADC in Gaborone, Botswana.
With such experience and exposure to
international affairs, Makoni should
have found his place back in Cabinet
when he returned home in late 1994.
But this was not to be, as everything was
being done by the powers that were
to keep him on the margins of the state,
not least because it was during
those days, and even earlier, that Makoni
was being touted, at home and
abroad, as a strong contender for the top post
in the land.
So, he was expediently shunted — and, perhaps, even
cold-storaged — to
Zimbabwe Newspapers as managing director, for two years
during which the
company did so well and yet, at the end of which, Makoni
was unceremoniously
given the boot.
There were largely political reasons
behind this, some of which were no
doubt linked to the perception,
especially at the highest place in the land,
that Makoni was increasingly
being talked about as a possible successor to
President Mugabe.
However,
this development compelled Makoni to turn to the private sector
where he has
been ever since, as both a thriving entrepreneur and
farmer.Except for the
two years (2000-2002) when he was called back as
minister of finance, a
position from which he bravely resigned when he could
no longer work with
President Mugabe. Indeed, he might have made a
difference to the flagging
Zimbabwean economy had he been afforded the
opportunity by President
Mugabe.
But, as I stated in my contribution last week, all these 30 years of
exposure to statecraft, international diplomacy and entrepreneurship, does
give Makoni more than an edge over Tsvangirai. This is a consideration,
which many a voter, in both the urban and rural areas, will not
miss.
For, Makoni is better equipped, in terms of leadership skills, to put
together a Cabinet as part of the Government of National Unity that he has
already espoused in his election manifesto; and knows more intimately what
should be done and how best it will be effected in order to redeem Zimbabwe
from the abyss in which (President) Mugabe and his government have left our
Motherland.
The circumstances in which Zimbabwe finds itself today are
also those
requiring decisiveness on the part of the electorate. And
precedent has it
that any society gripped by such an economic and political
crisis always
emerges from it on the basis of a decisive vote in which the
incumbent loses
by a landslide to the victor.
It is an occasion to put
aside loyalties and sentimental considerations in
favour of a decision that
will ensure that the best person for the job is
elected, and elected by a
landslide.
If so, then I have more than just a feeling that Makoni will
emerge the
victor on Saturday. For, even if I know him better than many
others, there
can be no doubt that he is the man of the moment, the one to
lead Zimbabwe
out of the current mess.
Unite our nation and catapult us
into the 21 century.
FinGaz
ZIMBABWE is a country desperately
in need of a miracle.
The country’s economy is in free fall, with gross
domestic product (GDP)
expected to contract further this year, bringing the
cumulative GDP decline
since 2000 to about 50 percent.
The inflationary
fires are intensifying, burning the economy down and
destroying any
remaining prospects for an economic turnaround.
The currency is in free fall,
albeit artificially controlled on the official
market.
Government
spending has been increasing at an unprecedented pace, again
increasing
inflationary pressures in the economy and creating an environment
that is
very difficult for business operations.
In the absence of balance of payments
support from offshore financiers,
government is expected to continue
aggressively resorting to domestic bank
sources for funding requirements,
normally through costly Treasury Bill
instruments, which have largely been
short term.
Government spending has increased phenomenally with the elections
on
Saturday, as politicians jostle to pacify a restive population and seek
re-election.
Last week, the money market was hugely awash with cash, with
liquidity
levels touching an all-time high of $1.5 quadrillion on Thursday,
against an
initial forecast of $700 trillion during the day.
The bulk of
the money came from unbudgeted government expenditure, going
mainly towards
financing the costly harmonised elections, as well as salary
hikes for civil
servants.
This has inevitably caused unprecedented market turmoil, again
exacerbating
inflationary pressures and wreaking havoc on the business
sector, and the
population.
Productivity has suffered immeasurably as a
result of foreign currency
shortages, which have hampered the importation of
raw materials, spares and
energy supplies.
The failure by manufacturers
to source scarce foreign currency from the
official market has driven them
to the parallel market, where the exchange
rate for the Zimbabwe dollar is
significantly depreciated.
This has resulted in companies picking up huge
costs due to the daily
movements of the parallel market exchange
rates.
Inevitably, they have to pass the higher production costs to
consumers,
supplying fuel to the inflationary fires.
Yet this week,
government again ordered retailers and manufacturers to
reduce prices,
alleging profiteering on their part.
The most ominous accusation against the
business community has been that
from President Robert Mugabe. He accused
the business sector of collusion
with imperialist forces working to unseat
his government from power.
Price increases, he said, were meant to create
social unrest and make his
government unpopular.
The business community
has previously denied colluding with external forces
to destabilise the
economy and agitate people against the incumbent
government, insisting price
increases were being “triggered by an
unprecedented increase in the price of
inputs apparently influenced by the
informal exchange rate”.
But on
Thursday, they passively allowed government to railroad them into
reducing
prices further.
Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries president, Callisto
Jokonya, described
the meeting at which the business community was asked to
reduce prices as
“cordial”, maintaining, however, that there was “no doubt
that business,
especially formal business, was complying with NIPC (National
Incomes and
Pricing Commission) prices”.
The NIPC is the government
agency responsible for the pricing of commodities
under a draconian price
control regime adopted by the government to deal
with inflation.
Jokonya
deliberately ignored the fact that at least two executives from key
milling
companies were recently arrested by the police for alleged price
control
violations meant to protect their businesses from collapsing.
Instead of the
business community challenging government to put in place
proper policies
for companies to operate, they docilely agreed to reduce
prices and toe the
government line.
Accusations against the business community totally ignore
the fact that poor
government policies are destroying business, creating
speculative tendencies
in the economy.
Clearly, government has been its
own worst enemy, and it is business that
should protest at government
policies that are undermining their well-being,
as well as that of millions
Zimbabweans toiling to eke out a living because
they have lost their jobs,
and have been robbed of a future because of
rampaging inflation stoked
mainly by government profligacy.
Inevitably, the latest round of price
controls will result in depleted
supermarket shelves – if they are not empty
already from the effects of a
June price blitz decreed by the government
last year.
The effect of price controls has always been to fuel shortages in
the
country.
Basic economic arguments note that price controls eventually
hurt the entire
economy.
Government is arguing that retailers should not
hike prices on their
shelves, even when the cost of replenishing stocks is
escalating daily.
Naturally, if retailers are forbidden from charging
economic prices, they
will eventually be unable to buy from the
suppliers.
If the suppliers cannot sell their goods to retailers at viable
prices, they
will quit buying from farmers who will be stuck with products
they cannot
sell in the marketplace.
Consequently, they might stop
producing the controlled products, creating
shortages on the market.
The
effect of this on a market already lurching from acute shortages should
have
been enough to dissuade government from imposing a unilateral price
slash.
The economy needs policies meant to move it forward, and not
piecemeal
reactions that fail to deal with the key problem hurting this
economy —
government extravagance.
FinGaz
Njabulo Ncube
Political Editor
FRESH allegations of attempts to rig this weekend's
elections have emerged,
with Morgan Tsvangirai's camp of the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC)
claiming a forensic audit of the Harare North
constituency had revealed 8
000 ghost voters.
There is also further
controversy from revelations by police officers at
General Police
Headquarters (PGHQ) of attempts to subvert their vote.
It is claimed that
during postal voting, envelopes arrived bearing their
force numbers, making
it difficult for them to freely exercise their right
to vote.
These
claims escalate a raging fight between the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission
(ZEC) and opposition groups over the printing of 9 million ballot
papers for
each of the four elections namely presidential, parliamentary,
senatorial
and local government, against a total of 5.9 million registered
voters.
A
document availed to The Financial Gazette details how police officers at
PGHQ, the seat of Commissioner General Augustine Chihuri, are angry that
postal voting "does not take place in a secret place" but in the presence of
a "Chief Clerk".
When approached for comment this week, Wayne Bvudzijena,
the police
spokesman, said he would need to check on the reports.
"I
don't know about those allegations. I am also yet to get my envelope,"
said
Bvudzijena.
The Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) applied for 8 000 postal
ballots for the
harmonised polls.
George Chiweshe, ZEC chairman, told
observers from the Electoral Commission
Forum and the Southern African
Develop Community (SADC) on Tuesday that the
police postal votes were
already being processed.
Chiweshe said the ZRP was the only government
institution that had applied
for postal votes, dismissing reports that the
army and other state security
agencies had voted days ahead of the
elections.
Tendai Biti, secretary general of the MDC, said his party had also
been
alerted to the controversy regarding the police vote.
He feared
ZANU-PF would use the police and other security arms to facilitate
multiple
voting.
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa however dismissed the MDC's
allegations
of vote rigging.
In a lengthy interview with the ZBC on
Tuesday, Chinamasa claimed the main
opposition was already seeking a
scapegoat for what he believes to be their
imminent defeat.
"They (MDC)
are preparing the ground to explain their defeat," said
Chinamasa.
He
also dismissed MDC claims that ZEC was biased. He said the MDC had
nominated
its own candidates to the ZEC board under SADC mediated talks, but
said
there was an agreement there would be no disclosure of which board
member
was nominated by which party.
"There are MDC members on the ZEC board.
Tsvangirai knows who they are."
He dispelled fears of post-election violence
should President Mugabe and
ZANU-PF win.
"The majority cannot revolt
against itself. There will be no violence. The
MDC will be wiped out
politically."
Biti said Chinamasa’s utterances were self-delusion.
The MDC
has lodged four urgent High Court applications to force ZEC to avail
details
on the number of ballot papers printed for the polls, release an
up-dated
voters' roll, explain the reduction of the number of polling
stations in
urban areas as well as address concerns about multiple voting.
A forensic
audit of a printed version of the voters' roll in Harare North
has unearthed
8 000 ghost voters registered under an empty stand in a bushy,
uninhabited
area.
"It is the eve of the polls, but we still have all these discrepancies
and
disputes with ZEC but they are refusing to address them," said Biti.
"There
are millions of dead voters who we fear ZANU-PF will use. We have
written to
ZEC on how they intend to prevent multiple voting and to ask
about what ink
is going to be used. They have remained mum. We have been
left with no
choice but to seek recourse from the same courts in which we do
not have
confidence," he said.
The opposition has also taken issue with
the latest ZEC requirement that
only one election agent will now be allowed
into a polling station due to
congestion as a result of four polls running
concurrently and in one day.
Biti, citing Section 55 of the Electoral Act,
said each presidential,
parliamentary, senatorial and local government
candidate is entitled to have
his or her election agent, including during
counting.
"But one person cannot cover four elections. It is in these areas
that we
suspect further rigging will take place."
The MDC has also raised
concerns over the counting of ballots, especially
for the presidential
polls.
Chiweshe said on Tuesday counting would be done in every ward, but
that the
final announcement of the results would be at the National Command
Centre at
the Harare International Conference Centre.
"The law is clear
that the chief elections officer announces the results of
the presidential
elections," said Chiweshe.
The United States said this week that the actions
of the Zimbabwean
government made free and fair elections impossible.
"We
call on the Government of Zimbabwe, including the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission, to take concrete actions to address these significant
shortcomings, including respecting the human rights and fundamental freedoms
of the Zimbabwean people. Despite these obstacles, we encourage all
Zimbabweans to exercise their democratic right to vote in a peaceful and
orderly manner," the US government said in a statement released
yesterday.
Reports about the irregularities come as South African Members of
Parliament
(MPs) deployed in Zimbabwe under the SADC observer mission have
been warned
against issuing independent statements that could contradict the
Angolan-led
delegation.
Ambassador Kingsley Mamabolo, foreign affairs
deputy director-general for
Africa, told journalists this week that unlike
in the past when Pretoria
sent its own observer team, the South African MPs
must accept that they were
in Zimbabwe as representatives of the SADC
mission, and not as individuals.
They will be expected to be guided by the
SADC code of conduct, which meant
that they would "not seek to score cheap
political points" by pronouncing
their individual views.
Instead, they
should share the sentiments that would be expressed by "the
SADC collective"
after the elections.
"It should be understood that they are not going to
Zimbabwe to endorse any
situation, but to objectively monitor the
elections," Mamabolo said.
He said there was nothing to stop the ruling
African National Congress or
other parties from sending their observer
teams, which could then express
their own views about the elections to serve
their particular political
agendas.
"We are part of the collective that
in the end must be guided by the SADC
code of conduct and must take
ownership of the decisions of the mission," he
said.
The SADC delegation
will be expected to spare no effort in intervening where
necessary.
This
was to ensure that Zimbabwe's stakeholders were left in no doubt that
the
delegation acted fairly when dealing with their concerns and complaints.
FinGaz
Rangarirai Mberi News
Editor
CHARLES Sigudu knows more than most just how spectacularly the
once
formidable walls that once protected ZANU-PF rural strongholds have
collapsed.
He is one of those responsible for bringing them
down.
We meet at Mamina, a crumbling rural centre at the end of a lonely,
bumpy
dirt road, inside Mhondoro-Ngezi, a poor rural constituency held by
ZANU-PF.
Sigudu is standing for council for the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC).
Three years ago, representing the MDC here would have been
certain to
attract beatings or even death.
But now Sigudu is standing at
the centre, with six of his colleagues, all
decked out in brand new MDC
T-shirts and carrying reams of campaign posters.
He describes how meetings
with villagers over the past few months have
eroded the image of ZANU-PF’s
invincibility here. Villagers now openly defy
the ruling party.
The
opposition has been able to campaign here more freely than in any other
previous elections, he says, although ZANU-PF activists still try to
frustrate them.
“We are being harassed. A car we hired was stoned, and
they block roads to
prevent us from getting to meetings,” Sigudu
says.
But the opposition activists are not deterred.
As with most other
rural areas, the yearning for change is now more palpable
here than it ever
was.
For long closed to any other campaigns and fed only ZANU-PF’s stale
slogans,
rural villagers across the country have been taken in by the
opposition’s
lively campaigning. Unable to resort to violence, ZANU-PF has
little to
defend its territory by.
“We are winning and they know it,”
says a young, female activist for MDC
Mhondoro-Ngezi Parliamentary candidate
Rombo Mangwiro.
“This time they are going nowhere. They know it.”
Crop
yields have been poor this year, and the community’s desperation is
visible.
In baking midday heat, hungry villagers stand idle at Mamina,
their only
preoccupation being the new MDC and Simba Makoni campaign posters
festooning
the walls of crumbling, empty stores.
Down the road, I arrive
at the local Grain Marketing Board depot. This is
peak harvesting season,
but the depot sits empty and abandoned.
The wood stacks that at this time of
the year should be creaking under the
weight of tonnes of freshly harvested
grain are decaying and termite ridden.
But on the other end of the depot lies
ZANU-PF’s secret weapons. These are
the ploughs and disc harrows that the
ruling party is confident will be
enough to save its seat.
Just outside
Mamina, I meet Bright Matonga, the Deputy Information and
Publicity Minister
who is MP for the constituency, and I ask him about the
farm
equipment.
“Call it vote buying, call it what you want. But we are empowering
our
people,” he says.
I put it to him that the starvation here, coupled
with unprecedented access
for the opposition, should be giving him a
fright.
But he is genuinely confident: “In the last election, I won 17 000
votes to
2 000. I don’t think this will change. In fact, with the programmes
I have
been running here, there’s absolutely no way I can lose. No
way.”
He mentions how he has stocked the local hospital, how he has put 700
of his
constituents on ARV treatment, and his support for local
schools.
But there is no doubt where his strength really lies; it’s all in
ZANU-PF’s
patronage system.
Half an hour later, there’s some confirmation
of this when I meet Chief
Murambwa, an energetic and vulgar man.
The
chief waxes lyrical about his brand new pick-up truck, his tractor —
“the
biggest in all of this area”, he says — and his modern home, complete
with
electricity and even a satellite dish.
He throws his arms around and paces up
and down to demonstrate his
enthusiasm for the farm mechanisation
programme.
“You are the journalist,” he says, “Tell me, do you know of any
other
leader, anywhere in Africa, who has ever done this for his
people?”
I seek his opinion on the MDC. Apart from the mandatory “MDC wants
to return
land to the whites” refrain, Murambwa reveals his frustration by
describing
opposition activists in unprintable terms.
He says most of the
MDC activists in the area are “our sisters’ children”
who fled the cities in
2005 after Murambatsvina.
But he acknowledges government has been slow to act
on what he admits to be
a desperate food situation in his area.
“First,
we had too much rain. Then we had a long dry spell. Normally, all
this land
that you see here should be brimming with crops.
“This year, we have nothing.
My people are hungry. I think there could have
been more speed in bringing
food here,” he says.
Still, he insists ZANU-PF means more to him than just a
tractor and a
satellite dish.
“ZANU-PF is the only party that can
guarantee our traditions,” he thinks.
FinGaz
Rangarirai Mberi News
Editor
THE run–up to Saturday’s election has been riveting, but the
post–election
period could yet turn out to be even more important.
A
win for each of the three very different candidates, President Robert
Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni, will attract very different
reactions, and would usher in very different directions in the way the
country will be governed.
Mugabe wins
ZANU–PF would never admit it,
but even for those within the ruling party,
the prospect of another term
under President Mugabe is the ultimate
nightmare. Libyan leader Muammar
Gaddafi, not exactly the world’s foremost
authority on free elections, says
leaders should hang on to power until they
solve all their country’s
problems.
He does not say whether this also applies to cases where the
leaders are
seen as the authors of those problems, or when their propensity
to make
calamitous decisions has been increasing with each year they cling
to power.
South Africa has said Zimbabwe cannot afford yet another disputed
election
result. But watching how the campaign has gone, any victory for
President
Mugabe can only be disputed. Which means we are back to the old;
political
stalemate, economic decline, and South Africa once again
reluctantly wading
in to “mediate”.
ZANU–PF has avoided direct talk on
the economy in this campaign, instead
harping on the need to protect “the
revolution”; the same revolution the
party itself has eroded and cheapened
into a comical affair defended by an
assortment of louts and randy
bishops.
Every night on TV, this once glorious “revolution” lines up women
who, like
attention–starved concubines, shake their booties to badly remixed
war
songs, all in the name of defending the land.
To many, the prospect
that such seemingly harmless insult should continue
for another five years
will be enough to wake them up very early on
Saturday. But most important to
Zimbabweans, a new term for President Mugabe
would be disastrous news for
the economy.
After 28 years, President Mugabe heads into Saturday carrying
heavy baggage;
world record inflation, a near worthless currency and a once
robust industry
crippled by his policies and threats.
After 28 years, it
is unlikely that ZANU–PF will suddenly find it within
itself to run the
economy efficiently.
Inflation currently stands at 100 000 percent. Where
would it stand at the
end of President Mugabe’s next term? Scary
thought.
President Mugabe is after “a resounding victory”. But if he only
pulled 56
percent of the vote at the end of an election fraught with
violence in 2002,
he is unlikely to pull off a big win from a campaign in
which the opposition
has chipped away at what once were his impenetrable
rural strongholds.
President Mugabe wants a big win, not only to send a
message to those
“maBritish”, but also to remain in control of
ZANU–PF.
His claims that he leads a united party went out the window with the
defection of Makoni and Dumiso Dabengwa. So a bad outcome - such as a
razor-thin win - sets up the possibility of even more infighting within
ZANU–PF.
On one hand would be the few inside ZANU–PF, cowed but quietly
aching for
reform. A poor electoral showing can only embolden them. But on
the other
hand would be President Mugabe, who would blame any poor
performance on his
lieutenants. He would attempt a cleanout of those whose
loyalty he
questions, but this would only split his party further.
Should
ZANU–PF decide it needs a new leader, Emmerson Mnangagwa, with the
rival
Mujuru faction in disarray, looks best placed to step in. But a dark
horse
could yet emerge.
Morgan Tsvangirai wins
One thing is for sure. Whatever
happens after the announcement of a
Tsvangirai win, it is safe to assume it
would include a mixture of wild
parties, copious amounts of hope, and a good
measure of uncertainty. But
Zimbabweans have never changed a government, at
least not since 1980, so
they might not know what to expect after the
partying is done.
But this uncertainty would quickly give way to hope, should
Tsvangirai show
a steady hand.
There are many that would accept his
leadership, but yet remain deeply
suspicious and disdainful of Tsvangirai,
but he would need to let go of the
vindictiveness and divisiveness that have
been the hallmark of his
leadership of the MDC over the past three years to
win them over.
His biggest task would be to rally interests that he might be
opposed to now
around the common cause of taking the country forward. He
would need the
immediate loyalty of the existing bureaucracy, as the parlous
state of the
country would need him to get to work
immediately.
Tsvangirai said recently, he would be willing to form a
government of
national unity if this would help unite the country and end
polarisation.
Tsvangirai would also face pressure from hardline supporters
to take
recriminatory action against his opponents, which are his former MDC
allies
and ZANU–PF.
He would also be under pressure to please the various
interests that have
backed his candidacy over the last decade; labour
unions, big business,
donors, ordinary workers and even white farmers. He
would also have some
serious work to do to fight corruption, both by
remnants of the old
administration, and by members of his new government,
excited by power and
eager to reward themselves.
In the immediate wake of
a Tsvangirai win, there would be obvious questions
about the security of his
government. The fears arise from comments by three
top security men that
they would only salute President Mugabe.
But it is unlikely that Paradzayi
Zimondi, Constantine Chiwenga and
Augustine Chihuri have the broad support
from the rank and file of the
uniformed forces to really stand against the
popular vote. It is more likely
they will be first in line to salute
Tsvangirai.
Stabilising the economy would be Tsvangirai’s immediate priority.
Tsvangirai’s
well funded campaign has shown he has the strongest support
from big
business and other external interests among the three main
candidates.
He promises swift economic recovery, underwritten by US$10
billion in
offshore support. However, all this would depend on his own
policies,
especially the composition of his cabinet and how he handles the
transition.
Fears of violence after a Tsvangirai win have been heightened
after
President Mugabe said he would “never, never” accept defeat. But it is
not
likely the President will successfully cling to power if he loses on
Saturday.
Should he try to resist, pressure on him to step down would be
brought to
bear from inside his own party and from the region, most notably
SADC.
Makoni wins
A win for the former finance minister would be a massive
upset against a
deeply entrenched incumbent on one hand and, on the other, a
more
experienced campaigner who has built grassroots structures over the
past
decade.
More likely is Makoni being a major player in a run–off. Who
would he
support? But in the unlikely event that he does win, as would be
the case
with a Tsvangirai victory, stabilising the economy would be central
to
Makoni’s new administration. Makoni has said his first task would be to
set
up what he calls a “national authority”, in effect a government of
national
authority, that would “harness the various energies of our people”
towards
lifting the country out of crisis.
But Makoni would find this
very difficult to achieve, given the deep
polarisation of the
country.
However, unlike Tsvangirai or President Mugabe, who would have the
choice of
either employing former opponents or picking their governments
from their
own parties, Makoni’s independent candidacy makes a unity
government
certain.
He would face the tough task of picking a government
balanced enough to both
achieve his goal of uniting the country, and to gain
domestic and
international confidence in his recovery plan.
Makoni has
said over the past two weeks that he would never return to
ZANU–PF. “Why
would I do that,” he asked an interviewer.
But there are many who believe
that, in the event that he won and President
Mugabe is compelled to step
down as ZANU PF President, Makoni could well be
asked to return to the
ruling party as its new leader. Others say, though,
that if he does win the
election, it is ZANU–PF that would need him more
than he would need the
party.
FinGaz
Shame
Makoshori Staff Reporter
ECONOMIC analysts have warned that government’s
directive this week that
companies revert to prices prevailing before this
month’s civil servants
salary hikes could result in another round of
shortages of basic
commodities.
Government engaged business in a
grueling battle for control of commodity
prices this week after President
Robert Mugabe, who is seeking re–election
for a sixth term, condemned
companies for increasing prices ahead of
elections on Saturday saying the
price increases were meant to force his
government out of power.
In the
past two weeks since government announced a 754 percent increase in
civil
service salaries, producers and retailers had significantly raised the
prices of basic commodities, most of which had been going up daily.
For
instance, the price of a two litre bottle of cordial that cost $15
million
two weeks ago had increased three fold to $45 million this week,
while the
price of a loaf of bread shot up to $25 million on the illegal
parallel
market, from about $6 million. The price of a soft drink, which
cost $4
million a fortnight ago also raced towards $10 million.
While the business
community has cited higher overheads as the reason for
the price increases,
President Mugabe has alleged the increases are meant to
create social
discontent and consequently unseat his government from power.
This week, he
threatened to make companies suspected to be at the forefront
of the price
increases the prime targets of takeovers under the recently
enacted National
Indigenisation and Empowerment Act.
The controversial Act empowers the
government to compel foreign–owned
companies to cede at least 51 percent of
their shareholdings to local
businesspeople.
President Mugabe has
reiterated that he was not making idle threats,
insisting the takeovers
would be implemented after the elections.
On Tuesday, on orders from
President Mugabe, the Ministry of Industry and
International Trade and the
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe met the business
community and gave unequivocal
directives for the slashing of prices to
pre–civil servants salary
adjustment levels.
And after the meeting, the Confederation of Zimbabwe
Industries (CZI) vowed
to comply with President Mugabe’s
instructions.
CZI President Callisto Jokonya said the industrial body was law
abiding and
would tell members to revert to approved prices.
“As a law
abiding organisation, CZI is calling upon its members to comply
with the
laws of Zimbabwe, including the respect of and adherence to
officially
approved pricing of commodities by both the manufacturing and
retailing
sectors,” the CZI chief said.
“We cannot be held accountable. We do not have
control over the distribution
chain. We are not security forces, but the
government should arrest anybody
breaking the laws,” he told the
journalists. But economic analysts said
President Mugabe’s directives were
political rhetoric meant to improve his
image ahead of the polls.
They
said forcing companies to reduce prices could further fuel the black
market,
where prices are much higher than in the formal retail outlets.
“The timing
of the price slashes is political,” said independent economic
analyst John
Robertson.
“The President wants to demonstrate that he has massive authority,
but...I
suspect that he is not going to find the results he is looking for,”
said
Robertson.
“(The price reductions) will not improve his image. Even
if the CZI wants to
comply its members will not comply because this will
mean (losses for
manufacturers ),” said Robertson, arguing that selling
goods at a discount
on the cost of production would result in company
closures.
“You and I will not get what we want from the shops even if the
prices are
low. When prices went down last year, the people did not get the
goods. This
is going to be repeated,” said Robertson.
Another banking
sector economist who declined to be named agreed.
He warned that the
government’s frequent threats to arrest businesspeople
would not stop the
price increases and inflation.
“We will see more firms shutting down, not
completely but just closing their
plants to reopen after the environment has
improved,” the economist said. We
are looking at the total depletion of
goods from the shops.
There are companies with positive prospects about
Zimbabwe’s future who will
continue producing at a smaller scale until after
the elections so that they
are seen to be supporting the government. Yet
they are not; they will just
be monitoring the environment because no one
can support this chaos.”
“Trends and history have shown that the government
cannot end hyperinflation
through price controls. Many governments have
tried that and they failed,”
he said.
FinGaz
Stanley Kwenda Staff Reporter
“March 29. Everyone at his place,
Mugabe to the land, Simba Makoni to
Finance and Morgan to State House, vote
wisely,” so says a text message
widely circulated on mobile phones this
week.
So pregnant with emotion is the mood in Harare, just two days
before the 5.9
million registered voters cast their votes on
Saturday.
Many are full of anticipation while others are approaching election
day with
caution, probably as a way of keeping their blood pressure under
control, in
case the election outcome does not turn out to be what they
expected.
The Financial Gazette went on to the streets of Harare to hear the
people’s
views and thoughts on this weekend’s general elections.
Although
many could not conceal their zeal to vote on March 29, they
remained
distrustful of the electoral process, which they said could be
manipulated
in favour of the ruling ZANU–PF.
A majority of those interviewed were
convinced that the election will bring
change, most saying Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) president, Morgan
Tsvangirai is likely to
win.
Tonderai Mutizwa, a wholesale worker, expects nothing short of change
from
the election. He says if the ruling ZANU–PF party wins, that would be a
confirmation that rigging was resorted to.
“(President) Mugabe will not
win this election unless he rigs. We are
waiting for change next week, what
might stop us is that (President) Mugabe
might rig the elections.
“Things
are being changed everyday and now we are being told that teachers
will not
be allowed to conduct elections, it’s confusing,” said a despondent
Mutizwa.
Just a few metres from Mutizwa’s humble workplace along Mbuya
Nehanda Street
is a teeming bus station, Market Square.
“I have no doubt
that Tsvangirai will win but I fear that soldiers will not
accept the result
as they have already said.
“I want this election to change the circumstances
of my family, I know
whoever comes in will not be able to put food on my
table, but I want a
conducive environment where I can work and feed my
family,” said Godfrey
Tasara, a bus driver.
Eunice Sigauke, a shop
assistant and street vendor, wants the elections to
bring change.
“All I
want is change for the better and this change should come peacefully.
We
cannot continue to have running battles on the streets of Harare with the
police, things are tough for us but vending has been criminalised and we
wonder how these leaders want us to survive.,” said Sigauke, a single mother
of two.
George Madawo, a crippled vendor, said he took up street vending
to escape
poverty. But he hopes the elections change his
circumstances.
He does not trust Simba Makoni and thinks he is a proxy for
the ruling
party.
“I am on the streets because of poverty. I used to work
at a factory but
this became pointless because the money was just not
enough. I will be
fighting for change when I go to vote on Saturday,” said
Madawo.
Tecla Muzezewa, a trendy shop owner and foreign currency dealer, had
no kind
words for the current leadership.
A ZANU–PF supporter who refused
to be named said no–one had the capability
to turn the tables on President
Mugabe.
Those rooting for the opposition would be disappointed after the
results are
announced.
“You will be very disappointed next week because
ZANU–PF will win this
election. No one has the capability to defeat
President Mugabe. In fact any
expectation of change is a day dream,” he
said.
With the air pregnant with expectation. Harare residents will find out
after
Saturday whether Tsvangirai , Makoni or President Mugabe will occupy
State
House.
Our Bulawayo Bureau Chief Charles Rukuni reports that the
election mood in
Bulawayo is confusing.
Though there is a popular feeling
that independent candidate Simba Makoni
could win more votes than Tsvangirai
in the presidential race, most people
have written off his election
partners, the Arthur Mutambara faction of the
MDC.
Mutambara is not
contesting the presidential poll. He is backing Makoni.
Observers say if
President Mugabe fails to win an outright majority in the
first round, he
does not stand a chance in the second.
FinGaz
Jameson Timba
Zimbabweans cannot
wait a day longer
ZIMBABWEANS face a major decision on Saturday. That
decision is an important
one to all of us in that it will change our lives,
the lives of our children
and those of our grandchildren forever.
It
is a decision that will determine the price and availability of bread
after
March 29. It is a heavy albeit important generational responsibility
that we
are all carrying. I have no doubt that we have carried so many other
heavy
responsibilities in our lives, but this one is different.
On March 29 we
cannot afford to make a mistake. March 29 determines our
future. If our
future is dependent upon what we do on that day then we
cannot experiment
with our future by making a trial and error decision.
We have to make an
informed decision. I have rationalised issues as a
citizen, a voter and a
candidate and made up my mind about what I am going
to do on that day.
I
believe that many Zimbabweans share my decision across the rural and urban
divide. Zimbabwe is a Presidential government and I hereby share my secret
with you that I am going to vote for Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC).
The majority of Zimbabweans are going to vote
for Tsvangirai because they
know what he stands for and they are comfortable
with it. They will vote for
Tsvangirai because they know that he has a solid
parliamentary and local
government team of candidates that is bound by the
same social democratic
principles and values and is ready to govern with him
and thus achieve
political and economic stability.
They will vote for
Tsvangirai because they know that unlike his competitors
the party that he
leads has a viable and comprehensive policy and economic
blue print, which
was launched two weeks ago. They will vote for Tsvangirai
because for as
long as they have known him he has stood by the majority of
Zimbabweans in
their fight against the ZANU-PF dictatorship.
They will vote for Tsvangirai
because they know that if by some miracle or
downright fraud the MDC does
not get into government on March 30 he will not
disappear to some comfort
somewhere and reappear 30 days before an election
to offer himself to the
people of Zimbabwe as President.
He will remain in the trenches with the
people who will in turn offer him to
take up the country’s Presidency as the
People’s President. MDC won the
2000, 2002 and 2005 elections and will win
the 2008 elections.
Zimbabweans will vote for Tsvangirai because he
represents the change that
they want, the change that they know, and the
change that they can trust.
I believe that the change that the majority of
Zimbabweans yearn for is
change that results in the total transformation of
our society and not a cut
and paste job motivated by a reform
agenda.
This dictatorship is a cult and culture that can neither be reformed
nor
panel beaten, but can only be overhauled. Zimbabweans now know that you
cannot change this culture by replacing the cult leader of a mafia with a
former initiated member of the cult and expect the mafia to now start paying
its taxes.
They also know that replacing a coal shunted locomotive in
Dabuka, Gweru
with an electric one does not change the cargo or route of
that train.
Any attempt to reform this dictatorship can therefore be likened
to putting
lipstick on a frog. Zimbabweans across the rural and urban divide
are now
conscious that they need to make our society better by dezanufying
it and
not to make ZANU-PF in whatever form better for our
society.
Zimbabweans know that they cannot wait for a day longer to put bread
on the
table for their children. They will vote for Tsvangirai because he
has tried
and tested political support and thus a better chance of unseating
(President) Robert Mugabe.
They will not waste their vote, which can make
the difference between change
and the status quo by experimenting with it.
They will vote for Tsvangirai,
because he represents the future and
(President) Mugabe the past and Morgan
means more.
Zimbabweans will not
vote for (President) Mugabe because he has failed and
does not represent any
change including the change that they do not want.
They will not vote for
(President) Mugabe because he cannot do anything
better this time around
that he and his team of leaders failed to do in 28
years or worse still this
week.
They will not vote for (President) Mugabe because he has not only
destroyed
what he inherited but also what he built. They will not vote for
(President)
Mugabe because in his manifesto he is promising nothing except
to defend
that which is not under attack — our land and the people’s
sovereignty. The
people want and deserve more.
The new kid on the block
Simba Makoni is a jolly good fellow. But as far as
this race and this game
is concerned, that’s where it ends for him. He
joined it late and without a
clear agenda.
The majority of Zimbabweans will not vote for Makoni because
other than
being affable they do not know what he stands for. His manifesto
is shallow
in content and substance. He is urging Zimbabweans to vote for
him because
he is Simba Makoni and that he will then think about and deal
with their
issues once elected and after establishing what he calls a
National
Authority when people are looking forward to a new stable
government with a
ready programme as defined in constitutional
democracies.
He appears in my view to be motivated by the old Kwame Nkruma
doctrine that
“seek ye the political kingdom first and the rest will
follow”.
Zimbabweans also know that March 29 is neither a beauty contest nor
a
laboratory setting. They do not know the change that Makoni represents and
they do not know whom he his working with and to what end. They are
therefore unlikely to experiment with their vote and the future of their
children and their grandchildren.
Zimbabweans are also wary of anything,
which has a remote association with
ZANU-PF. One of the mistakes that Makoni
and his campaign team made is not
to totally dissociate themselves from
ZANU-PF.
Writing for The Financial Mail recently, Professor Tony Hawkins a
respected
economist of the University of Zimbabwe Graduate School of
Management had
this to say about the Simba project:
“While it is clear
that Makoni is running against Mugabe, it is not at all
clear what he is
running for — no party, no organisation, no platform and no
published
policies. Never publicly has he raised his voice in criticism of
the early
1980s massacre of thousands of Ndebele people by the army, whose
commanders
now reportedly support him; never publicly has he condemned
Operation
Murambatsvina (“Drive Out Trash”) during which hundreds of
thousands of
people lost their homes and livelihoods. On the other hand, he
has publicly
defended the Mugabe land grab, most notably at the annual
Southern African
gatherings of the World Economic Forum. Nor does his record
as finance
minister bear close examination. It was he who lit the long
inflation fuse
that has now delivered 100 000 percent inflation when he
imposed interest
rate controls in 2001.” Simba Makoni is more of the same
On his part, Makoni
has rightly or wrongly reserved his rights with respect
to his purported
expulsion from ZANU-PF. He said that until there is due
process, in this
case meaning until he is called before a disciplinary
hearing of the party,
with charges properly preferred in terms of the
disciplinary rules of
ZANU-PF he remains a bona fide member of ZANU-PF
albeit an independent
Presidential candidate.
Ibbo Mandaza, a member of his team said that they
were ZANU-PF and what they
intended to achieve was a renewal of the
leadership of ZANU-PF by default. I
am not aware whether Mandaza has
surrendered his ZANU-PF membership card or
been “expelled” from
ZANU-PF.
Dumiso Dabengwa another key member of the team recently at the Press
Club
said that (President) Mugabe cannot accuse him of having joined “little
Simba” because Makoni was their horse and can never be senior to
him.
Makoni was therefore presented by Dabengwa not as his own man but a pawn
in
a game of chess. I do not subscribe to the notion that he is a stooge of
the
West as alleged by ZANU-PF, but it appears that he has handlers within
ZANU-PF itself.
Dabengwa went further to say that he was still a member
of the ZANU-PF
politburo and will be attending its meetings. Dumiso, in
defence of the
Makoni project also said something very scaring.
He said
that one of the things that have motivated their project was to stop
Zimbabwe from falling into “wrong hands” like what he said happened in
Zambia. He lamented the fact that most leaders of Kenneth Kaunda’s UNIP in
Zambia are leaving in abject poverty and it was therefore necessary that
leaders of the liberation movement in Zimbabwe protect their “gains” through
what he called a rescue operation as represented by this project.
Whose
and what “gains” does Dabengwa want Makoni to protect? Dabengwa is yet
to
surrender his ZANU-PF card or be “expelled” from ZANU-PF. What the above
actions of the Makoni team seem to suggest is that some members of ZANU-PF
have decided to drag all the Zimbabweans to resolve an internal party
Congress dispute as to who should be the leader of ZANU-PF, Makoni or
(President) Mugabe.
There lies the weakness of this project. The struggle
for many Zimbabweans
has never been about who should be the leader of
ZANU-PF. That is an
internal party matter.
The struggle has been about
salvaging a failed national democratic
revolution presided over by ZANU-PF
as a party and a culture. If the
majority of Zimbabweans were dissatisfied
about the leadership of ZANU-PF
per se then they would have joined it and
effected change during their
December, 2007 congress.
In addition, the
actions and utterances of this team seem to suggest that
the plan is that if
Makoni was by some miracle to win the Presidency, then
he and his team will
go back to take over ZANU-PF and Zimbabweans will go
back where they were,
minus (President) Mugabe.
Zimbabweans have however learned over the past 28
years that a rose by any
other name will still prick you and that “Dawn” is
not a subjective
occurrence defined by the time one wakes up.
March 29 is
about making a choice between life or death. It is about a
choice between
the past and a new Zimbabwe. It is about a choice between
hope or despair,
democracy and freedom or dictatorship, economic prosperity
or continued
decline, a longer life or shorter life expectancy, food on our
tables or no
food at all, drugs in our hospitals or more recovery wards
turned into
mortuaries, electricity or candles, clean or no water at all,
our children
in or out of school, genuine national integration and
reconciliation or
continued political, racial and tribal polarisation,
transparent national
resource management or continued plunder and looting of
our resources,
international acceptance or continued international
isolation.
What
happens after March 29 will depend upon how Zimbabweans will have voted
in
the Presidential election. Three things will happen. Firstly, if
Zimbabweans
vote for (President) Mugabe, March 29 and beyond will be as good
(or should
I say as bad) as today, where our country remains in a
fundamental crisis of
governance and biting symptomatic economic crisis. Put
simply, the price of
bread, that is if you find it, will continue to
skyrocket beyond the means
of the majority.
Secondly, If Zimbabweans experiment with their future and
vote for Makoni
and thus vote for any change whose content and substance
they do not know or
contributed to then anything can happen after March
29.
That to me is a scary thought. The price of bread and worse still, its
availability will be unpredictable.
However, if Zimbabweans vote for
Tsvangirai, and thus vote for the change
that they know and can trust, then
this country will transform and open a
new page guided by social democratic
values with the price and availability
of bread predictable. The essence of
this change will be represented by
l The creation of a new form of national
dialogue and discourse, which is
underpinned by a new people, driven
Constitution.
l The establishment of a dynamic and participatory democracy in
which
Government is accountable and subordinate to the citizens.
l The
restoration of the core values of trusts, confidence and love between
the
government and its people.
l The establishment of a vibrant economy based on
the principles of social
justice and human centred wealth creation.
l The
creation of a just society where women’s rights are at the core of a
healthy
and productive society.
l A literate Zimbabwe where education focuses on the
demands of sustainable
human centred development and the transformation of
society.
l The execution of a land policy that balances the irreversibility
of the
land reform and the demands of equality, social justice and
agriculture
viability.
l The creation of a self-sufficient Zimbabwe State
that can feed, clothe,
house, educate and treat its people.
l The
establishment of a Zimbabwe that takes its rightful place among the
family
of nations and strives for genuine grassroots led regional
integration.
l
The establishment of an alternative human centred policy on science and
technology that seeks to expand available knowledge.
March 29 is
therefore a decision between the past or an uncertain future or
a New
Zimbabwe and a New Beginning. That democratic choice is for
Zimbabweans to
make. However, may I advise that, before you make that
decision, ask
yourself the following three questions: Will my vote
contribute to
maintaining the status quo, will my vote delay change or will
my vote
enhance the chances of meaningful change for me and my compatriots.
I further
advise that your answers to these questions be based on the
political facts
on the ground.
Finally, what I ask of Zimbabweans is to walk with Tsvangirai
as your
President and the rest of the MDC team nationally this last mile to
a New
Zimbabwe and a New Beginning.
Do not despair, victory is in sight.
Mahatma Ghandi once said and I quote
“When I despair I always remember that
throughout history the way of truth
and love has always won.
There have
been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they can seem
invincible, but in
the end they always fall, always.”
The future needs you now. We must vote for
the change that we know, the
change that we want and the change that we can
trust. Walk with Tsvangirai
and together we can live the change that we
want. Walk with him and you won’t
walk alone.
Jameson Timba is an
MP candidate for the Mt Pleasant Constituency for MDC
(Tsvangirai) and
writes in his personal capacity.
FinGaz
Dumisani Ndlela Business
Editor
...as Government salaries drench market
MONEY market liquidity
burst through the quadrillion-dollar mark on Thursday
on increased
government spending, crossing the forecast position for the day
by a massive
$600 trillion.
Liquidity had always appeared headed for the psychological
quadrillion-dollar level for quite some time, but had barely been expected
to reach that mark on Thursday, when the market was expected to be in
surplus to the tune of $700 trillion.
The market closed drenched to the
tune of $1.5 quadrillion on Thursday, the
first time liquidity went through
the quadrillion levels after a spell in
the trillion dollar zones since the
start of the year.
“It’s money coming from the government for the civil
servants salaries,” a
dealer told The Financial Gazette this week. “It’s
money for salaries as
well as for the elections,” he said.
He indicated
that statutory reserve payments expected on Tuesday after the
Easter
holidays as well as corporate tax payments during the week were
expected to
sterilise the market and keep it “squarish”.
Apparently, the Reserve Bank of
Zimbabwe (RBZ) has not intervened to mop up
the market of excess liquidity
in line with its tight monetary policy to
reign-in runaway
inflation.
This reinforced suggestions that the excess cash was not emanating
from the
banking sector but, rather, from the government.
Domestic debt
recently burst through the quadrillion-dollar mark to reach an
all-time high
of $1.6 quadrillion in the first week of March, after touching
a high of $60
trillion at the beginning of the month.
The government is facing increasing
expenditure pressures emanating mainly
from escalating inflation, which
recently touched 100 580.2 percent
year-on-year for December 2007, a world
record for a country not at war.
The government has entirely depended on
domestic sources to finance its
ever-increasing budget deficits, resulting
in increased money printing.
Bilateral and multilateral financial
institutions terminated balance of
payments support to the country over
alleged human rights violations by
President Robert Mugabe’s government,
accused of rigging the 2002
presidential election to retain
power.
President Mugabe’s government has denied the accusation, arguing it is
being
villified for redistributing land from the white minority to landless
blacks.
The RBZ appeared to also have deliberately avoided sweeping the
market to
prevent a liquidity crunch that could have resulted in banks
failing to pay
depositors withdrawing their money.
Money market dealers
said the interbank market was dry, despite the huge
liquidity on the market.
The bulk of the excess cash was concentrated in
building societies and other
low-balance institutions like the POSB where
the majority of civil servants
hold their accounts.
FinGaz
Kumbirai Mafunda Senior
Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S embattled millers and bakers have been granted a
temporary relief
after the government allowed them to hike the retail price
of bakers flour
and bread, the country’s second staple food.
The
National Incomes and Pricing Commission (NIPC) recently approved both
millers and bakers requests for price reviews, with the retail price of
bakers flour going up to $1.2 billion per tonne and $5.4 billion for a tonne
of pre-pack flour.
The NIPC also gave bakers the green light to sell
bread at $6.6 million per
standard loaf and $10 million for a loaf of super
white bread.
But the relief comes with strings attached as the NIPC ordered
millers to
commit 80 percent of their flour supplies to producing bakers
flour and 20
percent for pre-pack flour.
The state-run price policing
body also ordered bakers to devote 80 percent
of their flour obtained from
millers to manufacturing standard bread loaves
and allocate the remaining 20
percent to the baking of fancy loaves and
other confectionaries.
“The
bakers and millers are allowed to use 80 percent of the flour to
standard
loaf and 20 percent to fancy loaves and confectionaries and millers
will
commit 80 percent of flour to bakers’ flour and 20 percent to
pre-packs,
respectively,” read part of the NIPC letter signed by the pricing
body’s
acting chief executive Esau Ndlovu and copied to the Zimbabwe
Republic
Police, Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries and the Zimbabwe
National
Chamber of Commerce.
The government last gazetted the prices of bread in
November when it hiked
the price to $200 000/ loaf from $100 000. However
most bakers had been
selling bread above these gazetted prices to remain
viable.
The decision to charge prices above the gazetted ones landed an
executive
with one of the country’s largest bakers, Bakers Inn, in trouble
after he
was arrested for violating price controls.
The police also
arrested two executives with the country’s leading millers
Blue Ribbon Foods
and National Foods — Mike Manga and Jeremy Brooke for
breaching controls on
the sale of flour.
However, bakers and millers told The Financial Gazette
that the relief
granted by the NIPC came late as production costs have
soared. Bakers said
they were pressing the NIPC to allow them to sell bread
at $18 million/loaf
to recoup costs and avoid bankruptcy while millers are
also asking the
pricing body to let them charge $5.6 billion for a tonne of
baking flour.
Prices: Case for bread industry
David
Govere
INDEED it is possible to bring some sanity in the pricing of most
basic
commodities. The current efforts have been on legislation and law
enforcement but sustainable controls arise from analysing the value chain,
determining the inputs and stabilising the input costs in order to arrive at
an appropriate bread price and then leverage on strategic institutions such
as the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) and industrial associations to ensure
compliance.
The regulatory scenario must make it difficult for deviants
to succeed –
reversing the current trend where the parallel market and the
multiple
pricing system has rewarded handsomely the daring, deviant and
illegal.
In making a loaf of bread the key inputs are flour, packaging,
yeast, energy
(fuel and electricity), baking ingredients, spares (plants and
vehicles),
labour, water and the loaf price will also depend on the retailer
margins.
The entire process forming the value chain will need to be
controlled and we
can take a quick look at each input.
Controlling the
price of flour
The government has done its part by ensuring that wheat is
sold at $61.00
million per tonne, which is highly subsidised. However,
taking into account
the heavy transportation costs, the milling costs and
labour, the National
Incomes and Pricing Commission (NIPC) has fixed the
flour price at $1.2
billion per tonne.
The traditional flour millers
(Blue Ribbon, National Foods and Victoria
Foods) citing the continually
rises in costs require $2.5 billion per tonne
as a minimum and NIPC, the
Joint Operations Command (JOC) and government
have tended to go very hard on
the traditional millers but it must be stated
that these are not the price
setters.
The price setters are the new millers led by the Chinese millers who
argue
that they have to recoup their new investments and use the parallel
market
exchange rate to determine the day’s flour price.
While
traditional millers are at $2.5 billion per tonne, the Chinese millers
range
from $9.0 billion to $15.0 billion per tonne depending on volume and
method
of payments (notes preferred).
These Chinese millers suggest that their
investment was in United States
dollars and therefore need notes to convert
back to the US dollar quickly.
They have also submitted that through their
companies, which are partnered
by very influential ZANU-PF Cabinet Ministers
nothing can happen to them. To
even make it worse the associated politicians
have exerted so much pressure
on GMB that a disproportionately high amount
of wheat is allocated to the
Chinese millers.
It is almost impossible to
control the bread price without managing the
Chinese millers and the GMB
wheat must be allocated to millers on the basis
of compliance i.e. no
compliance, no wheat.
Controlling packaging costs
Both the cost of
plastics materials and inks are a function of the foreign
exchange rate. The
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) needs to stabilise the
exchange rate and
provide the foreign exchange in order to control the bread
price.
If
industry resorts to the parallel market for foreign exchange costs will
determine the movements within that market.
Controlling yeast
Yeast
comes from molasses and imported enzyme cultures and chemicals and
Anchor
Yeast is the sole supplier. Again Anchor Yeast needs access to
officially
priced foreign exchange and then the company must be made to
comply with
NIPC price guidelines.
Controlling baking ingredients and fats
These
include fermentation enzymes, preservatives, sugar, salt and special
fats,
which have been constantly rising due to the parallel market exchange
rate
and increasing local production costs. One cannot stabilise bread
prices
without controlling these key inputs. All the salt used in Zimbabwe
is
imported.
Controlling energy costs
Bakeries use paraffin, diesel and
petrol for the baking and distribution of
bread, unfortunately the National
Oil Company of Zimbabwe’s limited
resources have resulted in the bread price
increasing because of fuels
supplied from the parallel market. The costs of
electricity are so low, that
ZESA has been unable to supply power to
industry because the low tariffs
cripple ZESA’s effectiveness.
When a
baker runs a fuel powered generator for one hour the cost of fuel
exceeds
the electricity costs for the whole month. ZESA tariffs must be
increased to
capacitate the institution and guarantee reliable and more
affordable
energy. Even if the ZESA tariff was increased 20 times, it will
still be far
below the cost of diesel or petrol used in generators.
ZESA’s failure means
there is going to be even more pressure foreign
exchange to buy fuel and
generators as well as the increased need to import
electricity. Authorities
should raise the ZESA tariff and the coal price to
ZESA, and energy costs
will be substantially reduced through enhanced local
power
generation.
Controlling the cost of spares
The spares used on baking
equipment and distribution vehicles are both
imported. As long as reasonably
priced foreign exchange is not available
from the official market the
vagaries of the parallel market will raise
havoc on input costs. RBZ must
try harder.
Controlling labour costs
Even bakery employees need to
afford the price of bread, however the current
upward spiral and vicious
cycle means that to ensure workers can come to
work every day, the wages
will have to go up monthly and in sympathy also
the bread price. More work
needs to be done at NEC (National Employment
Councils) to ensure that the
survival of employees as well as the
stabilisation of bread price are
balanced.
Controlling water costs
All food companies use large amounts
of water. The poor quality of water
forces companies to process water
internally thus pushing the costs up
further. A decent tariff will enable
the Zimbabwe National Water Authority
to play its part
fully.
Controlling retailer margins
Essentially retailers do not need
to finance the purchase of bread, the
short cash cycle of bread means that
bread quickly finances itself. The
tradition has been a 10 percent retailer
margin on bread, sugar, milk and
most basic commodities. The consumer will
not get a fair deal unless there
is compliance on this universally accepted
pricing position.
Finance Costs
This is a function of macroeconomic
fundamentals. The current pricing does
not even allow recapitalisation,
which means the entire industry is running
down its assets and sacrificing
quality as we go on.
Conclusion
Summing up on this, managing and
stabilising the macroeconomic environment
will increase production and can
ultimately eliminate shortages and
introduce price stability through
completion. If RBZ allocated $15.0 million
US dollars per month for wheat
importation and another $15.0 million US
dollar per month for fuels,
ingredients, packaging, spares etc, bread prices
will stabilise and baking
products will be available countrywide.
The current run on the foreign
exchange rate and wheat shortages, has forced
us to manage symptoms rather
than causes. Bread retailing has also moved
from traditional retailers to
fly-by-night operators encouraged by high
margins (shortages) and the fact
that because of their “no-fixed aboard”
nature both the police and NIPC
cannot control them or enforce any laws.
There is therefore a tall order in
restoring Zimbabwe to a functioning
economy again as we are in effect fully
Congo-rised (the DRC syndrome)
having essentially shifted all crucial
activities to the unregulated
informal sector.
Good luck to everyone
wishing for the return to sanity with many odds
against the
initiative.
David Govere is the senior vice president for the Employers
Confederation of
Zimbabwe
FinGaz
Staff Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S cash
shortages resurfaced during the week with several banks
again battling to
dispense cash to depositors despite huge cash injections
into the system by
government.
Banking sector sources said demand for cash was increasing
with escalating
inflation, creating pressure on banks.
The sources said
unlike the last cash crisis that had been precipitated by
insufficient
collateral by financial institutions to enable them to withdraw
enough cash
to meet daily requirements by their own customers, the current
situation was
mainly a result of inadequate notes on the market.
However, a few banks did
not have sufficient collateral to secure
accommodation from the central bank
to enable them to pay depositors, and
were battling to source cash from the
interbank market to avoid borrowing
under the unsecured facility, which has
penal interest rates.
The central bank has deliberately kept the market awash
with cash and
avoided sweeping the market to curtail an intensification of
the cash
crunch.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe temporarily suspended the
Non Negotiable
Certificate of Deposit (NNCD) by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
after
financial institutions showed signs of stress during the peak of the
liquidity crunch that began during the close of the previous year.
The
NNCD’s are normally used to mop up excess cash on the market.
Dealers said
bank treasuries were concerned by the uncertainty on the
market, which was
second-guessing the intentions of the central bank
regarding its plans on
the money market.
There was speculation the NNCD’s could be re-introduced,
but some dealers
said bankers were properly deploying their cash and were
not responsible for
the excess liquidity created by excessive government
expenditure.
Therefore, the central bank could not penalise them for excess
liquidity
emanating fron it, they said.
“There is strong sentiment in the
market that the RBZ may introduce shorter
term Treasury bill paper since it
has managed to restructure government’s
domestic debt into the long term,”
an analyst with Kingdom Stockbrokers
said.
FinGaz
Dumisani Ndlela
MARKETS yesterday
lurched into turmoil after the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
(RBZ) issued a raft
of new policy measures, including an ultimatum to
manufacturers of
commodities to produce enough for the depleted retail
market within two
days.
Sources said executives from key manufacturing companies, among
them
multinational Uniliver Southern Africa, were summoned by the central
bank
and ordered to fully supply the market within 24 hours or risk being
charged
penal rates on cheap funds lent by the RBZ to the companies to boost
production.
The new measures followed a strike on the banking sector by
the RBZ, which
hiked the statutory reserve payment ratios and re-introduced
the
Non-Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NNCD), increasing its tenor from
seven days to three months.
It was the first time in weeks that the
central bank moved to sweep the
market, which has experienced huge liquidity
levels, which crossed the
quadrillion level for the first time last Thursday
to touch a record high
$1.5 quadrillion.
The key accommodation rate —
widely viewed as the cost of money — surged
from 1 200 percent for secured
borrowing to 4 000 percent, and from 1 650
percent to 4 500 percent for
unsecured borrowing under the facility.
The new measures triggered a stampede
for treasury bills by banking
institutions as they fought to avoid parking
excess cash into the
non-interest earning NNCD’s, used by the central bank
to mop up excess
liquidity and to punish financial institutions holding
excess cash.
Dealers reported a Treasury Bill (TB) take-up of $93 trillion
yesterday, a
record subscription rate for the money market
instrument.
The take-up level for the TBs was likely to forestall a hugely
surplus
market, which had been forecast to close $1 quadrillion up
yesterday.
Statutory reserve rations were hiked to 50 percent on all classes
of
deposits for commercial banks, merchant banks and discount houses, from
between 35 percent and 45 percent depending on the type of
deposits.
Statutory reserve payments for building societies were kept at 10
percent on
condition that they aggressively participated in high-density
housing
projects.
Building societies that fail to comply with this
measure will make a penal
statutory reserve payment of 40 percent of
deposits. Statutory reserves,
which are a percentage of bank deposits, sit
at the central bank and earn no
interest for the financial
institutions.
But the biggest shock was kept for the industrial sector, which
received
cheap loans to increase production under the basic Commodities
Supply-Side
Intervention Facility (BACOSSI).
Sources indicated that
manufacturers were yesterday warned that should they
fail to supply the
market adequately within 24 hours, interest on BACOSSI
loans, pegged at 25
percent, would be raised to 2 000 percent, while the
Zimbabwe dollar
component of foreign currency given to the manufacturing
companies would be
exchanged at parallel market rates, currently close to
$90 million per
greenback against the official exchange rate of $30 000 to
the United States
unit.
Efforts to obtain comment from RBZ spokesman, Kumbirai Nhongo, were
unsuccessful as he was in a meeting when contacted last night.
The
National Incomes and Pricing Commission chairman, Goodwills
Masimirembwa,
who attended yesterday’s meeting, was not reachable on his
mobile phone
number.
A number of companies, which had used the cheap funds to meet
operational
expenses like salaries, could be forced into bankruptcy should
they fail to
charge the high interest rates and pay parallel market rates
for foreign
currency received from the central bank under the
BACOSSI.
BACOSSI was introduced in October last year to promote a speedy
return to
normalcy in the supply of essential goods after a price blitz in
June
triggered massive shortages across the country.
The Financial
Gazette has established that manufacturers and producers
sanctioned by the
central bank yesterday include food processors, poultry
and piggery
producers, beverages makers, bakers, sugar producers, cooking
oil and
magarine makers and meat processors and abattoirs.
When BACOSSI was extended
to the private sector, it was said to be a
production-linked financial
lifeline for working capital requirements.
The market still remains bare of
most critical basic commodities, with the
majority of supermarkets across
the country having empty shelves.
FinGaz
Kumbirai Mafunda
Senior Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE has secured additional electricity
imports from Mozambique to cater
for the weekend harmonised elections in
which President Robert Mugabe faces
a tough challenge from veteran
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and
ex-ally Simba
Makoni.
Informed government sources told The Financial Gazette yesterday
that ZESA
secured an additional 100MW from Mozambique’s state-run HCB, which
was
already supplying 200MW into the country.
The increased imports are
meant to ensure that key institutions running the
elections have adequate
and uninterrupted power supplies.
The sources said government representatives
and ZESA officials met with HCB
officials in South Africa two weeks ago to
reach an agreement over the
additional power deal.
It was at that meeting
that HCB officials pledged 100 MW.
HCB will supply power to Zimbabwe for four
days beginning tomorrow until
Monday.
ZESA chief executive officer Ben
Rafemoyo confirmed the deal with HCB in a
terse response to queries from The
Financial Gazette.
“They (HCB) will give us an extra 100MW but they will
revert back to their
200MW contractual obligation,” said
Rafemoyo.
Opposition and civic society groups had raised fears that
electricity
outages could hamper the administration of the elections,
arguably the
country’s most hotly contested elections since independence in
1980.
Zimbabweans go to the polls on Saturday to vote in presidential
parliamentary, senatorial and council elections in which the ruling ZANU- PF
party faces a stern challenge from the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change and some former ZANU-PF loyalists who are contesting the elections as
independent candidates.
Zimbabwe, which consumes about 2 200MW of
electricity per month, has been
generating about 1 500MW, forcing ZESA to
frequently ration power and plunge
most parts of the country into
darkness.
Attempts to fill up the power deficit through imports from South
Africa have
been dealt a blow as Eskom is also battling to meet its rising
domestic
power demand.
Economic observers say power cuts are only one of
the several adversities
that Zimbabweans who are enduring under one of the
country’s worst economic
crisis in history, largely blamed on mismanagement
by President Robert
Mugabe’s administration.
Critics accuse the
government of committing little investment into the
capital-intensive power
generation sector.
Meanwhile, ZESA Holdings’ head of business development and
corporate
planning, Obert Nyatanga, has died.
Family spokesperson
Washington Nyatanga said Obert died from cardiac failure
at his Greendale
home.
Rafemoyo, who worked with Nyatanga for more than 10 years, described
him as
an industrious person.
“His death is a huge loss which has created
a huge void in the system.
“He used to accompany me to high level meetings
both local and international
ones where he contributed meaningfully to
ZESA’s work,” said Rafemoyo.
Nyatanga will be buried at his rural home in
Chiduku, Rusape today. He is
survived by his wife and two children.
FinGaz
Comment
THIS
Saturday, Zimbabweans will have yet another opportunity to elect those
who
should rule over them for the next half-a-decade.
It’s a chance that each
one of the 5,9 million people registered to vote in
the weekend elections
should seize without hesitation considering that the
next synchronised polls
will only come in 2013 when those who would have
made it through this
Saturday submit themselves yet again before the
electorate, begging for
fresh terms.
Sixty months is far too long a time for any voter to live with
regrets and
it is precisely for this reason that Zimbabweans should cast
their votes
wisely.
Come March 29, each registered voter should have the
patience of a turtle to
endure the frustrating queues at the polling
stations as staying away from
the polls, for whatever reason other than
ill-health or mental
incapacitation, would undermine the people’s will to
resuscitate the country’s
battered economy.
Never before has the country
been confronted with such profound challenges
as today’s and this Saturday
Zimbabweans have the crucial task of choosing a
credible line-up of office
bearers — from councillors right up to the
highest office — capable of
healing an economy that has been in intensive
care for the past nine
years.
The country’s economy is at the crossroads with no easy solutions out
of the
multi-faceted crisis sticking out like a sore thumb.
In December,
inflation zoomed past 100,000 percent, a world record and an
unusual feat
for a country not at war. And in the past few weeks prices have
soared to
record highs, a sure sign that whoever wins the watershed
elections has to
institute painful measures to subdue the inflation monster.
Unemployment is
getting out of h